Computer Models: The “Cone of Error”

Hurricanes are highly unpredictable storms that can grow tremendously stronger in only a few hours. There is no guarantee they will follow the path predicted by computer models.

Monitor broadcast media and listen to instructions from local officials. If you live in an evacuation zone, leave when local officials tell you to do so.

Projections for the path of a storm are made with a “cone of error” – shaped like an ice cream cone with a black line through the center. The further out in time, the less accurate the predicted direction can be.

• 24-hour predictions: The center of the storm can swing 100 miles to the left or right of the projected track over the next 24-hour period.
• 48-hour predictions: The center of the storm can swing 160 miles to the left or right of the projected track over the next two days.
• 72-hour predictions: The center of the storm can swing 230 miles to the left or right of the projected track over the next three days.
• Four-day predictions: The center of the storm can swing 290 miles to the left or right of the projected track over the next four days.
• Five-day predictions: The center of the storm can swing 350 miles to the left or right of the projected track over the next five days.

For more information visit:

• National Hurricane Center - English
• National Hurricane Center - Espanol
• Ready.gov - English
• Ready.gov - Espanol
• American Red Cross